Poland’s fertility rate fell to a historic low of 1.099 in 2024, Poland’s statistical office GUS said in a report, which has deepened concerns about the country’s shrinking and ageing population.

The figure marks a steep decline from 1.991 in 1990 and remains well below the replacement rate of 2.1. Only eight countries recorded a lower fertility rate than Poland in 2024, including South Korea (0.7), Singapore, Thailand and Ukraine (all 1.0). Poland’s rate is also below those of Japan (1.2), Germany and the UK (both 1.4) and France (1.6).

Births fell to a postwar low of 252,000 last year, while deaths reached 409,000, making 2024 the twelfth year in a row with more deaths than births. 

Reversing, or barely improving, the situation will be difficult, GUS said in the report, pointing to decades of low fertility and fewer women of reproductive age.

Women had their first child at an average age of 29.1 in 2024, up from 22.7 in 1990. Meanwhile, 23.8% of the population was over retirement age, rising sharply from 12.8% in 1990.

There is no single cause for the fertility drop. The Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine are recent factors but, in the longer run, Poland’s lack of housing policy and – perhaps most importantly – cultural changes may have played a fundamental role.

Poland also has one of Europe’s strictest abortion laws, which, experts have long said, discourages women from having children at all.

The former Law and Justice (PiS) government introduced pro-family measures like the “500+” child benefit, later raised to “800+”, but admitted in 2020 that they had failed to raise fertility long term.

The current government, in power since December 2023, has kept those payments and introduced measures to help parents return to work. It has also reinstated public funding for IVF.

High immigration levels have partially offset the demographic losses in recent years.

Immigration, however, has become a touchy issue in politics, with politicians from the hard right to the centre speaking out against the influx of immigrants, who they paint as a threat to social cohesion and Poland’s traditional values.

The population decline trend in Poland and other countries of so-called emerging Europe is a long-running phenomenon, threatening a drop in the populations of many countries to levels not seen since the early 20th century.